The discussion about luck is inseparable from the discussion about skill.

When looking into it, it turns out that the standard deviation of skill in any field you look at has decreased over time. Also, as soon as social components come into play, outcomes become inherently unpredictable.

The Mona Lisa was an irrelevant piece of art until she was stolen in 1911 and recovered in 1914. But that single event paired with the rise of new and wider modes of communication let the entire world first worry about and then celebrate her. Pure luck.

In other words: it takes skill to be part of a relevant set, but it takes luck to be on the top. And luck becomes even more important since the decrease of the standard deviation in the distribution of skills creates competition around this scarce resource.

The only way out of this dilemma and to create abundance of luck might be to prepare your mind in all ways possible to find as much luck as possible.

Thomas Schindler